Um, I'm pretty sure this wasn't how it played out:

The first question I asked John McCain and then Barack Obama was: How do you feel about the tone and direction of the campaign so far?

No surprise. Both men pronounced themselves thoroughly frustrated by the personal bitterness and negativism they have seen in the two months since they learned they would be running against each other.

"I'm very sorry about it," McCain said in a Saturday interview at his Arlington headquarters. "I think we could have avoided at least some of this if we had agreed to do the town hall meetings" together, as he had suggested, during the summer months.

[...]

Since the idea of joint town meetings was scrapped, the campaign has featured tough and often negative ads and speeches. They culminated last week in an exchange in which Obama said that McCain and his supporters were calling attention to the Democrat's unusual name and the fact that "he doesn't look like all those other presidents on those dollar bills."

Wow. According to Broder, the reason why the campaign turned negative in the last week or two was because Barack Obama decided not to disarm his campaign and agree to give John McCain a whole lot of free media through a series of "townhall" meetings. Interesting. But totally wrong.

The reason why the campaign has turned negative is simple -- it's because the McCain campaign decided to go negative. Obama didn't force McCain's hand. The lack of endless debates that political elites, but not regular voters, watch did not create the negativity. McCain simply realized that he could not win on the issues, that in a vacuum he had no shot at victory, and that instead he had to run shady ads that are effectively nonsensical but nevertheless seem to be hits on his opponent.

The point of noting this is not that the person who goes negative first loses -- because I certainly do not believe this to be true -- or merely to lay blame (though to suggest that no one is to blame, or both candidates are equally culpable, is rubbish). But do note, however, that despite McCain having descended into the muck in recent days, Obama nevertheless has led by 5 or 6 points -- or more -- in almost every reputable non-tracking poll recently, and that Obama continues to hold an electoral college edge. The tenor inside the Beltway may have changed, and Broder may be convinced, but it's not clear to me that the voters are buying it.